Bespoke Forecast Models

Freestanding or Linked to Global Model

• Data-permitting, MEF can construct:
• client-specific econometric forecasting models....
• ...either freestanding "satelitte" models or ...recursively connected to the MGEM..
• ...with global model inputs from MEF forecast OR client's own bespoke global forecast from MEF

Recent Work - Building Client Models

MEF can construct free-standing econometric models which the client can take ownership of. These models are then fed by (exogenous) global economic forecast/scenario inputs from the MGEM. Recent examples include:

• China Provincial:National Model - A famous,international economics/informatics multinational asked MEF to contruct a 31-Province economic forecasting model for China. After an initial recommendation paper, a model specification was agreed & estimated using various econometric techniques. MEF then remotely assisted cleint-firm economists to operationalise the forecasting model over the own intranet. A new international product was then launched once the model was operationalised.
• Global Defence spending model - this was designed/built for DAS consultancy as a freestanding satelitte model driven by MGEM inputs such economic growth/inflation as well as fiscal/demographic forecast inputs. MGEM Global scenarios can then feed directly into this model to help quantify the (global) macroeconomic risks
• Shift-Share model - to analyse sub-regional performance on GVA & Employment in the N.West England; the analysis concentrated on performance in employment and GVA (Gross Value Added).The work was performed for IPEG at the University of Manchester who were themselves contracted by the NWDA. This project then led onto the development of an MEF sub-regional forecasting model.

Potential clients can request more information or submit consultancy specifications by

A MEF economist will then contact you to discuss your needs in more detail.