On-Line Scenario Service
MEF Subscribers can access the mGEM (50-country) global model to explore UK/Global macro risks - run DIY macro scenarios from either the standard MEF base global forecast or a client's own bespoke forecast base:
How the On-Line Scenario Works
Users build-up a DIY scenario in 3/4 simple steps via the online scenario wizard:
- Step1-choose shock(s) eg add $15pb to oil price & add 25bp to US short-term interest rates.
- Step2-{OPTIONAL - ADVANCED USERS]- overide some pure model reponses to the scenario
- Step3-choose country-specific and/or global comparative output tables ;
- Step4-double-check their overall scenario before submitting ;
..wait 30 seconds for model to solve, then view summary scenario response charts on-screen + recieve instant email with detailed scenario materials
Advanced Users Step2 - Overiding Model Responses to Shock(s)
As an alternative to the default of allowing a "pure" model reaction to the user-specified shock, advanced users can, in Step2, overlay their preferred responses for monetary policy, exchange rates & earnings. For example, a user may specify +50 bp shock to Euro interest rates but then overide the model & impose eg a 2% appreciation in the Euro against the US$ alongside eg no change in German earnings, instead of just letting the model equations respond naturally to the interest rate shock.
