On-Line Scenario Service

MEF offers two on-line products for running DIY forecast scenarios 24/7; these can be run from the standard MEF base global forecast or a client's own bespoke forecast base:

On-Line Scenario Service: LEVELS/CHANGES
Clients can access on-line scenario results tables in both "changes from base" and "levels" formats. The standard MEF central global forecast will be used as the base forecast. However, users also subscribing to the MEF Bespoke Forecast Service can use their latest global forecast as the scenario base & thus can update this forecast (in levels) online in light of any subsequent unanticipated economic shocks to exogenous/policy variables (eg the oil price or interest rates).  

On-Line Scenario Service: CHANGES ONLY
This on-line service is aimed at users who only need to view scenario results in terms of "changes from base" format where the base is a standard MEF forecast base. Users also subscribing to the MEF Bespoke Forecast Service run their scenarios from their latest central forecast base, although for any given "shock" this will show identical "changes from base" from the MEF forecast base. 

How the On-Line Scenario Works

Users choose their shock(s)- eg add $15pb to the oil price and add 25 basis points to US short-term interest rates. They can then choose country-specific and/or global comparative output tables, double-check their overall scenario, then simply submit for instant processing (by e-mail). Users should then receive their specified Excel scenario output results - in either levels or (%) changes from base - shortly afterwards in their specified e-mail inbox.

Overiding Model Responses to Shock(s)

As an alternative to allowing a "pure" model reaction to the user-specified shock, advanced users can impose/fix on their preferred responses for monetary policy, exchange rates & earnings. For example, a user may specify +50 bp shock to Euro interest rates but then overide the model & impose eg a 2% appreciation in the Euro against the US$ alongside eg no change in German earnings, instead of just letting the model equations respond naturally to the interest rate shock.
NB where a interest rate variable is shocked (eg +75 bp on US short rates) if users then additionally impose a US monetary policy reaction this will overwrite the original shock (a popup window will alert the user to this). Interest rate shocks are imposed "by residual" ie US short rates will initially be 75bp above base but the US interest rate equation will quickly respond to this monetary tightening & US interest rates will then gradually converge back toward pre-shock levels.